Last ned (Gratis)

Abstrakt

This paper discusses the model validation of the two-stage research on the Vulnerability
Black Markets (VBM). System dynamics (SD) models have proved useful to draw credible
conclusions from limited data. A first place step is to map the problem and circular causeeffect
links (i.e., feedback) between important variables. To build confidence on the model,
the SD approach requires performing various specific tests, i.e. structural tests, structureoriented
behavior tests and behavior pattern tests. A few tests are quantitative; some could
be performed directly using the simulation software’s capabilities of model testing for an
SD model. In addition, since the model also derived from non-numeric sources, similar
method of validation is required. The latter aspect should involve the perception, opinion
and experience sharing from actors who may know this issue. The paper presents results
from the sequence of validation process.

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